Most of these comments deal with the reasons to vote for one or another candidate. The thing that strikes me as most interesting about this nomination process, is not who should be the nominee, but how the nominee is actually being decided.
By any standards except identity politics, Senator Clinton is still a strong candidate. In the six primaries running from Pennsylvania, including North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, and Kentucky (I haven’t seen percentages for the ones after that, except Puerto Rico), Senator Obama outspent Senator Clinton three to one, within the fragmentary information I have. By hugely outspending his opponent, and still having the better organized campaign, he managed two solid victories, one marginal defeat, one solid defeat, and two obliterative defeats. I mean, 35% and 40% losses?! That just doesn’t happen between serious candidates.
It’s been obvious for months that neither candidate would get enough pledged delegates to win the nomination. The superdelegates will decide this. Part of their job is to reject candidates who can’t get votes. Senator Clinton has been killing Senator Obama at the polls, in spite of his huge funding advantage. He’s still ahead in delegates only because of the caucuses, in which the superior organization of his campaign gave him a big edge. When people voted, he’s never done all that well, and has recently been getting pulverized. Arguably, it’s the job of the superdelegates to reject Senator Obama, and support Senator Clinton, who has been getting votes.
The reason Senator Clinton is out of the running, is because of the identity politics. If Senator Obama doesn’t get nominated, a big chunk of the black community will go into revolt. The Democratic Party is critically dependant on it’s near-monopoly of black votes. For the Party to alienate a substantial chunk of the black vote, would be a lot like hitting the “self-destruct” button. It’s only for this reason, that the Party has to nominate Senator Obama.
That’s all very well, but poses the possibility of several types of backlash of its own. I’m not sure what’s going to happen from here. Does anyone else have any thoughts on this, that they wish to share?
