1. A few people above have brought up the Hispanic vote, citing the 34% voter ID for Dems over Repubs. But that Pew poll taken late last year did not do a McCain vs Obama head to head; the results will clearly be much different if you ask this, much more of an even split at worst and in my view probably a slight McCain lead. And the Pew poll also had this to say:
“Hispanics constitute a sizable share of the electorate in four of the six states that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer in 2004 –New Mexico (where Hispanics make up 37% of state’s eligible electorate); Florida (14%); Nevada (12%) and Colorado (12%). All four are expected to be closely contested once again in 2008.”
Think about it: do you think FL Hispanics prefer Obama (D-Cuba) over McCain? And McCain captures 70% of the Hispanic vote in his home state, so it’s a good bet he’ll do quite well with them in the neighboring states of NM-NV-CO.
2. Party ID is quite different than party registration. When things look bad and the incumbent president is unpopular and at the end of his second term, party ID goes down, not necessarily party registration. In any event, there’s no question that many of those who no longer call themselves Republican are now independents, not Democrats, and many of these folks are tailor-made for McCain, the same kind of maverick many of them think they are.
