Professor Guvinoff
2010-07-26 17:35:28

Conclusion jumping seems to be the favorite sport of our time. Not being in the loop closely enough, we cannot tell whether the recourse to kinetics will eventually be warranted or not.

Too much depends on other things which we cannot predict, like whether the Tehran regime will eventually collapse under the burden of its popular ferment before it gets to be in a position to use its most ardently pursued “toys”. Let’s remember, we are not the only ones who find themselves in unfelicitous financial circumstances. Before we hyperventilate regarding the narrowing of our own options, let’s keep alert about the narrowing of their options. If their internal economy continues to deteriorate while their popular opposition continues to gather strength, our kinetic option may still become unnecessary.

This would be the optimal outcome, and it may still obtain, because the threat of kinetics can be more effective, and even preventative, than its actual use. The best option is to be ready to use it, and reach a point where the operational plan can be safely cancelled, even if just moments before it had seemed no longer avoidable.

How do you say “chicken” in Farsi? If we see large sums of cash moving out of Iran, seeking refuge in places like Switzerland, for instance, it will tell us that the powerful actors within Iran have decided that the game is too dangerous for their own creature comfort. We already can see the well endowed outsourcing their glorious jihad to poor souls who who don’t know better than blowing themselves up for someone else’s cause.

The Saudi billionaires who send money to Pakistan and elsewhere can still visit Lebanon to drink some whiskey whenever they wish, while the turbaned mujaheddin in the mountains have fewer options indeed.