Problem with this analysis: It is treating the entire country as one whole. If you notice on RCP, McCain is beating Obama in a state that absolutely SHOULD NOT go red, Michigan, and I don’t think it’s just because of the democrat primary delegates game. This is a state which is 1) a labor union stronghold, 2) traditionally blue, or has been for the past few elections, 3) heavilly African American. It seems to me from those three facts, plus it’s uber high unemployment rate, Obama should be beating McCain by double-digits, with or without the mindlessness of the DNC. But then you look at California, a state that prior to this slow down was considered mildly in play, and it is suddenly pure organic blue. It may be that in states with voters who have disliked all along the economics of the Bush administration, Obama wins out so strongly that he is able to rack up a pointlessly large majority among them on that issue, from that state, while only mildly touching the other sides base, but as the Economist pointed out recently, it’s not how many votes, but how many states, that you win. Frankly, I think it’s going to be a close race, and pointlessly large majorities in places like California will not make this a blow out (though it will make Obama more defensible) any more then Hoovers pointlessly large majority in New York made the 1930 election a close race.
