While I suppose anything is possible, I think that the authors concerns about McCain’s chances in the Fall are unfounded.
First of all, despite about as unfavorable an environment for an the Republicans as you could possibly imagine (a free-fall in housing values, an unpopular war, gasoline prices spiking, an economic slowdown, a credit crunch, and a republican president with an approval rating hovering around 30 percent), McCain is still hanging right there with Obama. In fact, Obama’s post-nomination-clinching “bounce” looks to have been only 3 or 4 percentage points. I know that the McCain people were expecting an 8 to 10 point bounce.
McCain has a lot of things in his favor. For one thing, despite the public’s fascination with Obama, America is still, philosophically, a center/right country. This is precisely where McCain falls on the ideological spectrum. Obama, on the other hand, is a committed leftist who is rated as an even more liberal Senator than people like Ted Kennedy and Chris Dodd. The task for the Republicans over the next 4 1/2 months will be to get Americans to take a hard look at Obama’s voting record as well as the people with whom he’s chosen to associate himself during his adult life. If they can do that, a significant number of voters are going to begin to re-think their infatuation with Obama.
Secondly, the fact that we are now unquestionably winning the Iraq War will help McCain. Most Ametricans might think it was a bad idea to go in to begin with, but most also think that now that we’re in it, we need to win it. McCain had the guts to stand up and call for more troops when it was profoundly unpopular. Obama, on the other hand, has consistently advocated throwing in the towel and accepting defeat for almost four years now, apparently oblivious to the utterly disasterous consequences of such a policy. Mark this down: Americans don’t respect wimps and they don’t respect quitters. Obama is VERY vulnerable on the “wimp” issue.
Third, gas prices can be a major issue FOR McCain IF … and only if …. the Republicans can get voters to understand that it’s been the Democrats who, over the past 30 years, have consistently blocked every Republican effort to open up US reserves to drilling. Had they not done so, we wouldn’t all be paying through the nose at the pump today. If there’s one issue that has Americans pissed today, it’s gasoline prices. But right now, polls show that most voters blame the Republicans for high gas prices. The GOP simply cannot afford to let the Democrats off the hook on this issue. This could be a game-winner … or a game-loser … for them.
Then there’s the experience issue. Voters may say it doesn’t make that much of a difference to them, but in fact it does count for a lot. Look at Joe Lieberman’s Senate race in 2006 against Ned Lamont. The “nutroots” gave Lamont the victory in the Democratic primary, but in the general election, voters in Connecticut, a very Dmeocratic state, went for the experienced candidate in a big way.
Finally, there are a lot of white Democrats out there who might be telling the pollsters that they intend to vote for Obama but who, when it comes time to close the curtain to the voting booth, simply won’t quite be ready to vote for a black man for president, certainly not one who pals around with the likes of Jerimiah Wright, Louis Farrakahn and William Ayers. I’d guess that these people account for 3-4% of the electorate, maybe more. So, taking that into account, I think this race is pretty much dead even right now.
Barack Obama is still largely an unknown quantity for most voters. He looks great in the suit and he gives a terrific stump speech, no doubt. However, as time goes on, the 10% of voters in the middle … those who will decide the election … are going to want more specicics, and the Republicans aren’t going to be nearly as reserved in defining them as his Democratic primary opponents were. My guess is that the more people find out about who Barack Obama really is and what he represents, the better John McCain is gonna look.
