Jim
2008-06-12 19:07:04
McCain is trailing in the national polls, but he’s doing far better in the electoral college. He’s down 272-266, if you include all leaners. Flip one state, any state, and McCain wins.
The reason for the discrepancy is that McCain doesn’t have the same margins in the “red states” that Bush did. Increased African American turnout will cut his margin in the South. However, it doesn’t matter if McCain wins NC by 1% or by 10%, he still wins. Obama is also doing better in the great plains and the mountain west than Kerry or Gore. Still, he will probably lose the same states that Kerry and Gore did, with the possible exception of Colorado.
