McCain’s general election strategy seems to be like his primary strategy: Play dead and wait for his opponents to screw up. Then win the election by default.
McCain will pull about 90% of Republicans. Republicans can vote Huckabee or Paul now because there are no consequences. Obama will pull about 85% of Democrats. Hillary supporters are mad, but most will vote for Obama. The independents will decide the election, and they can break either way.
I see three different scenerios:
1988 – Democratic challenger gets a huge lead by DNC. However, once voters get to know the two candidates, the Democrat is simply too liberal. The uninspiring, but safe Republican wins the election.
1976 – Uninspiring Republican associated with an extremely unpopular President runs against an inexperienced Democratic agent for change that brings great pride to a certain subsection of the population. Democrat leads most of the way, but Republican closes late for a photo finish.
Reverse 1980 – Race between an unpopular incumbent (party) and a challenger viewed by many to be too extreme to be President. The challenger reminds many of a big time loser that the party ran in the not to distant past. Polls stay close until the end. However, the nation wants change and the challeger wins big along with his party.
Even if Iraq continues to improve, that won’t necessarily help McCain. Remember Winston Churchill: After five years of blood, toil, tears, and sweat, the British population voted him out of office right after VE day. He had won the war, and the population felt that he was no longer necessary. As Iraq improves, the economy comes more to the forefront.
