CPO Mack, I certainly hope people at the White House are engaging in a similar discussion as ours, for all of our sakes! However, I think we would get more results if we held our own “beer summit,” and I would even supply the map!
Escalation is still my biggest fear with the Chinese, just like John Kennedy was afraid the Cuban Missile Crisis would spin out of control very quickly through simple miscalculation or sheer stupidity. The Chinese may not want a nuclear war (even though nobody wants one, except, maybe, the Iranians, but that’s a whole different story), but one side could be forced against the wall if it sees their side losing control of the situation. And when it comes to the Chinese, I sometimes think of what Mao once said. During the cold war, he said something to the effect that, “If we kill 250 million Americans, we will destroy the United States. If the United States kills 250 million Chinese, we will still have about one billion people left.” Granted, Mao was never one to dwell on the quality of life of those who would survive a nuclear war, but he did have a point. I wonder if the hardcore Chinese communists still believe that?
As for our anti-ballistic missile defense and Airborne Ballistic Laser (ABL), which is basically a 747 with a powerful laser beam on it, well, nothing is perfect. Lets say that both of these systems work say 80% of the time (and that’s being generous). If 20% of the Chinese nukes get through it would probably destroy most of this country, certainly the bulk of the west coast. And I’m not even considering if the Chinese use something really, really, nasty, such as an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) missile attack that would essentially destroy this country in a matter of moments. A recent book on the subject, One Second After, pretty much lays out this scenario and what it would do to this nation. And we have not even discussed chemical or biological weapons the Chinese may have hidden away somewhere.
As you said, they might employ asymetric warfare, especially against our carrier battle groups. In one of the most recent issues of the US Naval Institute Proceedings, there was an article about a new class of Chinese stealth fast attack craft (FACs) and their sole purpose seems to be to attack a carrier battle group with lots of cruise missiles from possibly several different directions. Add to that a few diesel-electric submarines attacking at the same time, then add to that Chinese Migs equipped with cruise missiles attacking at the same time, and throw in a few land-based cruise missiles fired at the carrier battle group, and it isn’t inconceivable that a single carrier battle group could be attacked by about 100+ cruise missiles at roughly the same time, as well as a few torpedoes fired from submarines as well. I know our defenses are good, but I don’t know any admiral that would think that an attack by over 100 cruise missiles from various directions on a carrier battle group would be easy to survive, let alone defeat. Even if only 20 get through, they could do an enormous amount of damage, even though a modern carrier could absorb a number of hits. We just don’t know how many is “too many,” before the ship goes down.
I firmly believe that, if there was a war with China, the Chinese would put everything on the table, including Taiwan, North Korea invading South Korea, and possibly even picking a fight with Japan over some obsure islands. China has no love for Japan, but Japan has a powerful navy, one that could be very useful in any confrontation between China and the United States. China may decide that Japan has to be neutralized militarily or at least intimidated into neutrality, so as to keep them out of the fight. Japan would probably reluctantly help us, and so would the Australians (every little bit helps). I won’t count the New Zealanders because they have a whopping two frigates to enter into the fray, so they may as well stay home.
But, I don’t know. I get the feeling that China is more bluster than action. We still have not considered what a war with the United States would do to the Chinese economy (it would probably destroy it) and we certainly could cut off their oil supply to the Middle East, which would certainly kill what was left of their economy. Remember, the Chinese government still has to feed over one billion people and, with the economy in shambles, you’re talking about living standards that would probably be worse than during one of Mao’s Cultural Revolutions. Remember, many Chinese have been “corrupted” by Western habits and luxuries and they would not take very kindly to turning the clock back to 1949.
Who knows, maybe the best weapon we have against the Chinese is to keep “corrupting” them with western material goods, music, the Internet, and electronic appliances. Many of the rich Chinese would be loathe to go to war with their best customer, the United States. But I certainly agree with you that the current administration would have little stomach for standing up to a major Chinese provocation.
But, like I said before, I would sleep better at nights with 15 carrier battle groups, at least five more Wasp class amphibious assault ships added to the ones we already have, a 400 ship Navy (Reagan wanted 500 but, hey, I’m a realist; I’ll take 400), and a few hardened island naval bases with long runways equipped with several new squadrons of P-8A Poseidon patrol/attack aircraft. That plus a plan on how to thwart an EMP missile attack would make my day.
Too unrealistic? You’re right, pass me some more beer.
