The guys over at strategypage.com wrote an updated version of “A Quick and Dirty Guide to War,” and they included some information on Korea. Basically, they gamed out probability scenarios regarding a conflict on the peninsula through 2015. Roughly, there’s a 30% chance of the status quo. There’s a 30% chance of a North Korean civil war (Korean Lebabon), where there’s no conflict with other powers. 30% chance of a civil war that expands to include other powers, and necessitates an intervention by either China, SK, or “the UN.” The rest of the probabilities broke down the chance of war between the North and South. There was only a slight chance of a NK victory, and a .5% chance that the war goes nuclear. If a war does break out, the financial damage will be vast, and the humanitarian crisis will be unthinkable. The Chinese don’t want refugees streaming over the border (it would kill their economy), and they do alot of trade with SK, so they don’t want SK’s economy destroyed, either. It’s in everyone’s interest to keep things as they are.
Given the statements that are coming out of the north, and the actions that are being taken up there, it appears as if KJI’s poor health has left him unable to maintain total control, and the various factions are jockeying for power. Regarding an invasion, the North has old equipment, low amounts of gas & oil, and poorly motivated troops (not including special forces). Basically, and conventional invasion can’t be sustained, and the resulting counter-attack by the south would devastate the north. I can give other thoughts about whether or not China would tolerate a united Korea, if anyone’s interested.
