I’ve had a couple of USAF tours pushing fighters around the peninsula, and a few other years in theater, but haven’t been there since the 90′s. However, here’s my 2 cents on the threat:
1. Artillery bombardment of Seoul. Can’t be stopped before they do a lot of damage, even if most of the HART sites are already targeted. May well choke a lot of roads with refugees.
2. Special forces, around 100K, but: they have to get them south. Probably jumping from AN-2 Colts at night and various sea landing sites. They’ll play hell with USAF and ROK air bases. However, there’s a reasonable chance of stopping most of them: boats and slow aircraft are easy targets (AN-2 is a fabric biplane, small radar cross section, but detectable).
3. Armor: won’t get far, too many mines, choke points, and angry grunts.
4. Nukes: it’s doubtful they have a weapon. Their tests were essentially misfires, probably due to plutonium contaminated with 238 and 240 isotopes, and from reports they were bigger than a house. I admit I’m prepared to be corrected–it would be a horrible miscalculation, but I think Dear Leader wants everyone to think he has nukes (sound familiar?).
5. DPRK naval and air power: please.
That’s just order of battle stuff. The other circumstances, i.e., China’s response, DPRK collapse, and the test of Obama’s leadership are, as noted by all, the wild cards.
