Obama, the Sinking of the Cheonan, and the Failure of Nuclear Deterrence
The key to ciphering out North Korea’s and the mad mullahs’ reaction to South Korean / American passivity about the Cheonan sinking lies in the economics of deterrence.
North Korea’s masters are essentially economically oriented. They seek to discover how far they can push the South without eliciting a military response. That’s the key to geopolitical extortion, which is what North Korea is aiming for.
Islamic fanatics are not economically oriented. They believe themselves to be on a mission from God, which mission includes the annihilation of Israel, and the subjugation of dar al-Harb to “the black flag of Islam.” Inasmuch as Islamic fanatics rule Iran, and might soon come into sway over Pakistan, the probability of nuclear strikes against Israel and America has nothing to do with deterrence, because nothing we might offer them would alter that mission from God.
You can only deter someone if there’s a maximum price he’d be willing to pay to achieve his aims. If there isn’t, and you’re unwilling to annihilate him, you’d better stay on good terms with God — yours or his.
