I think the Russian analogy needs to be used with great caution. First. There were a couple of generations separating Herzen, Tkachev and Lenin, and a lot of events. The 1904 Russia-Japan War, was followed by the first machinery of constitutional government.
Second, the Bolshevik takeover was not a “popular revolution”, it was a coup d’etat, perfected by the Red Army in the ensuing civil war, and by the secret police and the gulags during the remainder of its 70 years of misrule and oppression. It is doubtful that the Bolsheviks ever had more than a tiny handful of true followers — as opposed to those who wanted to be on the winning side.
The supervening event, that was random with respect to Russian History, and, which few historians argue was inevitable in European History, was the Great War (World War I to Americans). It led to the collapse of the Monarchy, and created the opening for the Bolsheviks. In some alternative universe where the war did not occur, or where Russia won quickly, the Tsarist government might have continued its evolution towards constitutional monarchy.
Another thing that should be noted is that A-Q seems to be its own antidote. Their ideology and practice really piss people off. It is possible that they could pull off a coup in an autocratic state, seize control of the repressive mechanism and stay in power, but every day it grows less likely.
