This is a very difficult situation. In such cases, the solution is usually never simple. There are multiple complicating factors that we have to deal with. We could simply attack. The potential complications associated with such an action are many fold and could serve to seriously limit our options later. Political fallout here at home from liberal society and from the international community could isolate us and weaken our ability to act in the future. It is doubtless that Iran and our other enemies would use the situation as a public relations boon and to strengthen their positions worldwide in the public eye. Allowing these people to appear as victims is something that could prove disastrous diplomatically and force the US to back down.
The chances are also high that Iran would use such a strike as a pretext to start a much larger regional conflict that could quickly escalate beyond our ability to control. Militarily at the moment, Iran poses a very small threat. In the future, their strategic threat will likely grow immensely as they acquire longer-range ballistic missiles, which could threaten Israel, and Europe. At this point in time, the Iranian military has very limited capabilities and cannot successfully defend against a US military assault. Iran’s air defense assets though many are antiquated and based upon inferior Russian technology.
Iranian infrastructure is extremely vulnerable to US airpower. Within the time of a short-duration conflict, US land and naval air assets in the region could cause catastrophic damage to Iran’s infrastructure. In the first hours of such a conflict, Iran’s power production and communication infrastructure would be destroyed, followed by their military and governmental command and control structure preventing them from coordinating a defensive response thus isolating and cutting off their military from their leadership. Simultaneously, in coordination with these strikes, Iran’s air defense network, including their air force would be neutralized. At this point in the conflict, US airpower would begin targeting the Iranian military and military industrial complex, which would be the primary objective of such a US assault. All this, including the initial “decapitation” strike could be accomplished in as little as 48 hours.
The only cause for concern in such a conflict would come from small Iranian military formations such as those of the Revolutionary Guard. Small concealed craft could deploy anti-shipping mines into the straits off the Iranian coast through which passes the largest portion of the worlds oil supply. This would have the potential of creating a world economic disaster. US forces both in Iraq and in Afghanistan would be extremely vulnerable to small unit attacks from across the Iranian border. While large formation of Iranian ground forces would be easily destroyed, small units of elite troops would almost certainly penetrate into Iraq and Afghanistan and cause significant damage and disruptions. The key in such a conflict would be to quickly gain the diplomatic submission of Iran’s government and force them to accept their losses and conclude the conflict before any further damage in inflicted to their infrastructure and industrial base.
Before initiating such a conflict, the US would need to be fully prepared diplomatically, and domestically to justify its actions in order to avoid excessive complications. The strike would have to be lightening quick and completely decisive, delivering the knockout blow that would force Iran into a quick diplomatic resolution. A mistake or mishap involving heavy Iranian civilian casualties, large US military losses or the mining of the Straits of Hormuz could have serious domestic or international repercussions.
This is an extremely simple breakdown of such a conflict and the potential risk factors involved. Our leaders and policy makers have to consider a huge number of things before they take action. Even a small mistake in such an undertaking could have dire and worldwide consequences. Do we need to take action against Iran? Certainly. The real question, is how do we do it. Generally such actions are taken only when other options have exhausted themselves or when the danger posed by not acting become to great to accept. Right now Americans are being killed in Iraq by Iranian weapons under the full knowledge of the Iranian government. At this point in time those loses are deemed acceptable in light of other options. It sucks, but what we might gain versus what we might lose keeps us from taking action. At the moment, the greater good is served by not acting, but THAT could change at any moment, and we might find ourselves at war with Iran at any time.
