#27 Jack, the two quarters of contraction definition of a recession has been around forever. See the the results of this NYT search from 1981-1990. I think it really goes back to at least the 1950s.
My point is that it shouldn’t be a judgment, and it wouldn’t be if we stuck with the two quarters of contraction definition. Sure, a govt. can (and just did) institute programs to stimulate growth in a manner not productive in the long-term and end the recession as defined, but then they’d risk a double-dip recession — as I believe we are.
The NBER was looking at ambiguous data in the first half of 2008 when it made its call, which is why it shouldn’t have made it.
I don’t think that 2Q08 was terribly influenced by the rebates, because about half of it didn’t get into consumers’ hands until June or later, and many people didn’t spend it. And yes, it should have been a permanent tax cut instead.
