Boris,
There’s a problem with your analogy about flipping a coin 4 times or 1,000,000… Each outcome has an equally likely chance of occurring, thus 50% heads/50% tails is a sure thing after a million tries.
With the computer models, failing to account for even just one variable adequately (or even at all) results will skew the results years from now far more than it will in the short term.
I understand what you’re trying to say, and there’s some truth to it when you’re talking about past events where you’re assuming the future will be the same as the past (temp averages in Chicago in June over the past 100 years, for example). But overall trying to project what is going to happen in the FUTURE when you expect the future to be an unknown different with computer models that are inadequate or incomplete is folly. Garbage in / garbage out. Educated folly, but still folly, IMHO.
