A Comment About

McCain and the Presidential Albatross

May 19, 2008 - 3:24 am - by Bill Bradley
John Samford
2008-05-19 19:42:59

“We have lost credibility and respect in the world because of 8 years of “COW BOY” foreign policy.”

Evidence please! I always see this claim coming from the BDS crowd but when I ask for evidence they present a poll. All that proves is they are completely clueless about Statistics as a science.
Opinion poll is an oxymoron. The good thing about opinion polls is that they give pollsters a way of making a living that doesn’t involve graft, corruption, insurance or card sharking.
A poll doesn’t prove anything. That means polls are NOT evidence. Statistics is a tool used by scientists to find evidence.
That microscope they use in CSI is NOT evidence, it is a tool used to find evidence. So it is with polling. It is a tool. In this precise case it is a tool that can be used to provide clues as to why Ohhhh….BAMA is getting his arse kicked among Whites, Latinos, Jews, old, married Etc. He only polls well among Blacks and those with low experience levels in politics ( aka the young). Find the common element among those sets ( intersection is what it’s called in set theory) and you will know why Ohhhh…BAMA is getting jack slapped now. Here is another clue. He was doing well early in the campaign.
Plot a trend from last June to this June and you will see he is slipping about 2 points per month in his approval rating. By the election, he will be down in the low 20′s.
Mr. Bradley, Local elections are local elections. Forecasting a NATIONAL election from several local elections has no foundation in fact. I would have to look it up, but IIRC, there were several ‘out’ elections during the ’04 cycle. They were won by Democrats and the pundits used them to predict the Demonrats taking the White House. We know how that worked, don’t we?
Now if you want to argue that the out elections predict a Democratic party surge in Congress, you will need to find someone else, since I agree. It won’t be for any other reason then Dean has done a brilliant, superb, magnificent job of organizing the DNC. His deck is short a few cards but he keeps the 47 or so he has in good order.
Also keep in mind that the DoS IS NOT carrying out President Bush’s foreign policy. They have spent the last 7 years foot dragging and doing their bureaucratic best to obstruct this administration. President Bush is fighting Al Qaeda but the enemy is the State Department.
SO you have 3 or 4 groups fighting over the steering wheel.