The 2012 Presidential Race: On Your Mark, Get Set, Go!
The early GOP presidential candidates will have to fight a terrible temptation: the temptation to campaign against the incumbent, who won’t be their most important opponent until late in 2012.
A campaign for the nomination must emphasize the candidate’s attractive qualities and positions. He can’t afford to run an “against” campaign; that would expose him to destruction from having focused on the wrong adversary. Even if there’s only one other contender for the party nod, an “against” campaign would undersupply his potential supporters with reasons to back him. Each candidate must do what so many candidates, left and right, failed to do in 2007 and early 2008: attract a base of allegiants and construct a firm plateau of support.
In this regard, Sarah Heath Palin has a substantial advantage over any other contender. Her personality, character, and political principles are already well known to the GOP and freedom-minded independents. In effect, her 2008 vice-presidential nod has positioned her in much the same way as Ronald Reagan’s abortive try for the 1976 presidential nomination.
As for the other probable aspirants:
– Mitt Romney? No principles, too avid for power, and less attractive as a campaigner than as a head on a poster.
– Mike Huckabee? Not nearly fiscally or economically conservative enough, and a bit scary to coastal conservatives “who keep baby oil and vibrators in the nightstand.” (P. J. O’Rourke)
– Rudy Giuliani? At this point, his aura from the post-9/11 recovery period has worn away, and his age come the election (68) will play against him with the party kingmakers.
– Mark Sanford? Not since the adultery scandal.
– Fred Thompson? Probably not. One quixotic attempt to save the Republic is enough.
– John McCain? Forget it; some Republican would put a bullet in him if he were even to muse about it in public.
– Bobby Jindal? Still too young, has failed to acquire any national stature or following, and, sad to say though it is, his Catholicism would probably count against him.
Sarah Heath Palin is definitely the front-runner, and will remain so unless some “journalist” produces a photo of her stepping out of a flying saucer.
