“This is just nonsense. No model predicted 2 degs in twenty years. But if you have a citation to prove it….”
Of course I don’t have documentation. That was pre-internet even (far the most part). I remember it being thrown at me in scare presentations. I remember the number because I thought it was unbelievable even then. Instead of jumping on the alarmist bandwagon, it made me skeptical. I have been following GW closely every since and have watched the alarmists change time frames, temperatures, and ecological consequences in the last 18 years. I have seen almost everything (emotionalism, guilt, name-calling, demonization) from the climate group except really good science. It’s hard to find anything now but the latest computer predictions.
As for “no model predicted 2 degrees”, do you even know how climate modeling is achieved? There are models which predict no warming in 50 years and models that predict 5 degrees or more in 50 years. Climatologists do statistical analysis to determine which models are closest to the an average of the models and they go with these. The different models are needed to analyze different weighting factors and adding or subtracting variables. Why? BECAUSE THEY DON’T KNOW EXACTLY HOW THE CLIMATE MECHANISMS INTERACT.
Additionally, each model is run multiple times because each run gives slightly different results. After so many iterations a most likely statistcal probability emerges. That’s for each model. By the way, that’s how the weather people make their forecasts too. So saying that weather and climate are different may be true in reality. But in the virtual world, they are forecasted the same way.
