I’m going to bet the endgame here goes something like this; Israel will own the southern half of Lebanon, Syria the northern half and the line of division will be somewhere just north of Jounieh on the coast to just north of Zahle (including the military airfield of Rayak.)
This will give Israel a super artillery position only 15 miles and some change at the closest approach to the Syrian capital of Damascus.
Points to ponder; What will happen to the Palestinian refugees in the camps in Bir Hassan and Ashrafieh etc. in the south?
Syria will definately annex their part, but will Israel officially annex theirs?
Will the Casino du Liban remain open under Israeli authority?
Most Lebanese with any means/money will have or are in the process of fleeing I’m sure. They did this during the civil war in the 70′s and 80′s. So with most of the intelligencia gone, along with the premier business folks gone, and the other rich Arabs not going to Lebanon to play anymore cuz they built their own Disneyland in the Gulf, I don’t see much future for Lebanon as anything but an historical footnote, kinda like Ifni or the Buchananland Protectorate etc.
