“The recession is quite elderly at this point having started almost two years ago at the end of 2007. I could certainly be wrong, but even some anemic recovery is likely.”
I’d bet on a W-shaped or double-dip recession. Even without cap-and-trade hara-kiri, the size of the deficit guarantees that any GDP growth will lead directly to a spike in interest rates (and Treasury auctions are *already* undersubscribed)- and down we go again. Toss in energy costs, banks effectively being run by Geithner, and an anemic EU and Japan, PLUS another round of forclosures and CDI blowups, and we’re going to be in bear-infested woods for a long time.
In fact a double-dip would be good, politically- because the Dems will *never* get away with blaming it on Bush.
