Gordon is wrong. It’s all a matter of timing.
From the military POV, the time to do regime change in Iran was in the fall of ’04. That is when the USA had the best force ratios against the Mad Dog Mullahs.
Unfortunately, that was the worst time from a political POV. Winning the ’04 election was more important. The WoT is going to be with us for at least 2 more generations. Win lose or draw in Iraq, cut and run or stay and fight, the war will go on. Terrorism has no center of gravity, no one place that can be use to leverage a victory. Like a bowl of jello, it has no main part no clear start or finish. You just have to dig in and keep eating until it’s all gone.
Terrorism will end with a whimper, not a bang.
The political time for regime change in Iran is this coming October. Remember, by law, the President has 60 days to wage undeclared war before reporting to Congress. The administration then has 30 more days to respond to Congress after that report.
So PRESIDENT Bush has 90 days to affect regime change in Iran before Congress can legally stop him. Impeachments take longer then that, so there is NOTHING that the Demonrats can do about it. With elections in November, Congress is not going to get very frisky about it.
If Bush wants to gamble, he could send the Stealth bombers over the second week of August, which would ensure maximum media coverage and force Congress to choose between voting for America or voting for Iran RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION. Guess how that will go?
The balance of forces from a military POV wouldn’t be ideal, but the USA has such an enormous advantage that it wouldn’t matter in the end.
There would be a spike in terrorism as the Mad Dog Mullahs sent their various proxies into action, but that would be a good thing in the long run. Hidden terrorist groups only have political value so long as they are hidden. Once they take action, they lose the ability to hide as well as their threat potential.
Politicians faced with hidden threats get nervous. Politicians faced with overt threats send a minion out to deal with it.
99% of the projected outcomes of an American attack on the Mad Dog Mullahs of Iran are beneficial to the west. It is a very long list, from OIL to Humans rights, peace and stability, universal sufferage, etc.
As far as the WoT, eliminating Iranian support for terrorism would not win the WoT, but it would be a huge bite of Jello.
