What this puts me in mind of is the Tet Offensive of early 1968. That strategy, while not militarily successful, became a rallying cry for those in the US who didn’t believe there was “light at the end of the tunnel,” as Westmorland thought. Many Americans began to see the North Vietnamese not as a nearly beaten foe, but as an army capable of organization and logistics. In that sense, the Tet Offensive suceeded politically by fomenting dissent in the US. This despite the fact that the North was depleted by the simultaneous attacks and probably couldn’t have repeated them.
It’s possible that the shock of an organized offensive by al-Sadr and al-Qaeda in Iraq would call for more cries for US withdrawal, even if that offensive isn’t ultimately successful. It remains to be seen if they coordinate their efforts and if we can learn from the lessons of Tet.
