From what I’ve read, the mullahs are popular with some young men, who are allowed by their position to become thugs for the Revolutionary Guards, and wander the streets harassing people, especially young women. There also of course is a conservative religious element. One book I read, however, made an interesting point. If you’re a lower-level Muslim cleric, in Tehran, one thing you can’t do is hail a taxi. None of them will stop for you. The Mullahs, of course, ride around in armored limousines, but the lower-level guys are poor and have to take a cab, or ride the bus. They’re so disliked, however, that the cab option is usually out. I agree with the author: the issue is going to be whether the guards are willing to shoot unarmed people in large numbers. If they do, things may unravel as a result of that; if not, then the regime is probably screwed, unless they can figure out a way to connect the opposition to the West believably.
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2009-06-19 16:02:13
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