Nothing in Iran is what it seems.
Remember that Mohammad Khatami, the wonderful liberal reformer, progressive, moderate, etc. etc. was president of Iran for eight (8) years and nothing changed. Not domestic policy, not freedom of the press, not executions of adulterers by stoning, not the nuclear program, not anti-American and anti-Israeli public holidays, not government supported anti-American Friday sermons, not the supreme leader’s control of the judiciary, not the show trials of Jews, Baha’is and dual nationals on trumped up espionage charges, not anti-semitic international conferences, not support for Hamas and Hezbollah. Nothing.
Is there really any reason to believe that no, if only Mousavi or Karoubi are elected, things will really be different this time?
Remember also that the evil, terrible, horrible, “Stalin” Ahmadi-Nejad was not elected in 2005 on an extremist platform. His campaign then was populist and even moderate on social issues and barely mentioned foreign policy at all. At the time, he and Karoubi were seen to be similar candidates competing for the same demographic.
Finally, remember that no incumbent has ever lost an election under the Iranian system that is in place since the revolution, where presidents are limited to two consecutive four-year terms. People like to recall Khatami’s “upstart” victory in 1997, but this was for an open seat, following Rafsanjani’s second term.
Ahmadi-Nejad will almost certainly be president for two terms as well. This is not because he is especially popular. The other presidents were not especially popular either. It is because the government controls the television and radio in Iran and heavily censors the newspapers and internet. And it is because there is no party system in Iran. Individuals can run against the incumbent, but they rely only on their friends and relatives to finance and staff their campaigns. There is no opposition party machine to back any single opposition party nominee. Imagine the 2004 US election with no Democratic party or Democratic nominee, but just the incumbent George Bush running against John Kerry, John Edwards, and Howard Dean all running as independents.
