IraqVet, Thank you for your intelligent comments.
I think SCIRI’s hand in this is indeed problematic. On the one hand they have cooperated with the establishment of a new government, they have not rebelled, and they have not brazenly attacked other groups of the population (at least on a relative scale. Their detracting qualities are that they are at crossed purposes with the formation of a national government and their own ambitions. They are almost hopelessly corrupt, and they are playing both sides of the fence (pro occupation and pro Iranian). Perhaps the only saving grace about Karbala’s religious parties is that they don’t want to be lap dogs for the religious establishment in Qom. If they court Iran that is exactly what they will become. That is why they court American interests.
There are two strong groups in Iraq right now, the army and the religious parties surrounding SCIRI. In the long term the religious parties may be too clueless to rule effectively. That leaves the Army. For better or worse that may leave us where we were in the bad old days, propping up military hanta’s that nobody really likes but end up being a necessity. In the absence of a political center, that may be the best that can be done.
I’m afraid I don’t care for the alternatives. Many people talk about Iraq in terms of Lebanon. That may actually be quite optimistic. The internal and external forces tearing apart Iraq may do far worse. Other far worse places come to mind like Afghanistan, Chechnya, Kashmir, Bolivia, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Somalia, Cambodia, Burma, Liberia, Angola, sub-Saharan Africa or the Congo. Lebanon is rather opulent for a failed state. In a twisted way Syria did save Lebanon from a far worse fate, though Syria was a large factor in creating and sustaining the problem too. Oddly enough, whatever intentions aside, we are in a similar position. Iraq can barely sustain itself with us but faces certain death and destruction without us. Or we could run away and let the Iranians do it in their own loving manor.
My apologies for my outburst of shining optimism.
