I just got back in July from an extended surge deployment to Iraq, stationed on a very small base right on the mail pilgrimage route from Iran to the Shia holy cities of Karbala and Najaf. I led a tactical intelligence gathering and counterintelligence team.
The Mahdi Militia has been enabled by Maliki. My educated guess is that SCIRI is now holding Maliki’s feet to the fire, making him choose, in preparation for the next round of provincial elections. When I left, the Sadrist Current had 30 representatives in the Iraqi Council of Representatives. They use their official positions to directly enable Mahdi Militia terrorist operations against fellow Shia Iraqis in the form of mafia like control of cities and intimidation of Iraqi Security Forces, kidnapping, murder and extortion, and operations against coalition forces, including explosively formed projectile networks, supplied by Iran, which kill coalition forces and Iraqi Security Forces. The Sadrist Current representatives issue these gangs official MOI identity cards and weapons permits. They use official vehicles to bully their way past Iraq check points. Absolutely everyone in these areas like, for example, Babel Province, knows all about this, including coalition forces commanders. Unfortunately, our US state department says that these Sadrist Current representative members have immunity from prosecution. Coalition forces have not been allowed to designate the Mahdi Army as a “hostile force”, which would allow the level of kinetic targeting options to be ramped up to another level, and allow the designation of Mahdi Militia mafia figures as “status targets,” similar to Zarqawi. The Mahdi Militia does NOT have the popular support of the Shia Iraqi people.
Think of something similar to a cross between the Branch Davidians and the Sopranos, existing in a culture where there is no sociological history of consensual government for the common good, outside of ones tribal/kinship structure, and you might begin to understand.
Sadr is just continuing his power challenge (reference this chapter in The Closed Circle: An Interpretation of the Arabs, by David Pryce-Jones). Providing services has nothing to do with it.
Sadr is a moron. He is a puppet for those around him. He is using his fathers name (who was assassinated by Saddam). He is not a scholar and has not gone through the Shia Hawza theological education process. On the Shia street (where I spent 16 months) he is jokingly, if privately, referred to as the Playstation champion.
The Mahdi Army has taken power away from the Shia Sheikhs, and they don’t like it, but the sheikhs can’t band together because they don’t trust each other, and they know that, due to the political power of the Sadrist Current, they would face repercussions.
Cui bono? Iran. They enable all the various players because they benefit the most from the ensuing chaos.
By the way, does anyone here know anything about Shia eschatology (the study of “end times”)? When their “messiah” (Mahdi) returns in power in Saudi Arabia, he is going to establish his millenial kingdom in the city of Kufa, Iraq.
Do not try and fit this dynamic into your western ideological and sociological boxes.
