While I find the post both credible and provocative, I would add a few points.
1. I think that the USA fading away to European social utopia will take a while if it happens at all during our lifetime. There will be a backlash to the insanity on the political table at present. Marie Claude, there is a difference between existing and living in a vibrant and challenging society.
2. If Japan loses faith in the USA umbrella, they will change the Constitution and remilitarize. This will fundamentally change the calculus in Northern Asia. Japan too has serious demographic challenges but the samurai spirit remains – and everyone in Asia remembers th 1930s & 40s.
3. South East Asia is a potential flashpoint if there is significant global economic deterioration as your post suggests. Indonesia could be a real mess.
4. South Asia with its nuclear Pakistan – India – expansionist China mix is another potential catastrophe.
