There’s very little doubt that Iran is supporting the other Shi’ite organizations (including the Maliki government). Their relationship with Sadr has historically been much less clear, since he’s a) an Iraqi nationalist and b) a less reliable proxy than the other groups. He’s rather impulsive and something of a free agent. Overall, his major sins seem to be a) opposing a foreign occupation, b) being more popular than Maliki (whom he helped install) and posing a real threat in the upcoming provincial elections, and c) successfully competing with the other Shi’ite militias for partial control of Basra’s booming oil-smuggling and corruption booty.
By attempting to take Sadr out ahead of the elections, Maliki has succeeded in undoing the ceasefire, rolling back the surge successes (such as they were) and forcing the Coalition to serve Iran’s interests — a real trifecta. He also risks a total collapse of his own (and the IA’s) credibility, and igniting a Shi’a-on-Shi’a civil war which the Sunnis will doubtless capitalize on.
In the words of the Guinness Guys: “Brilliant!” (And remember, those who are rooting for Maliki today weren’t quite so sanguine a few weeks ago when he was hugging Ahmadinejad and praising Iraq/Iran cooperation.)
