I thought the most interesting thing is the most obvious: Maliki had been the Sadrist pick, and now the results of the surge have apparently compelled Maliki to turn and join SCIRI/Dawa/Badr, the more established parties. Sadr is obviously a threat to both American goals (stable friendly Iraq) and Iraqi goals (coherent integral Iraqi state, even if only for the worst-case purpose of most effectively embezzling from it). It is unfortunate that Maliki has extended the cease-fire to April 8th. The survival of Sadr is the one irrefutable strategic error in OIF. For some reason everyone is spooked by the martyr theory, which as virtually no basis in reality, or otherwise manipulated by the ulema who suggest that Sadr’s lineage would galvanize mass support. Both are wrong: a live Sadr has proven a calamity many times. The success of the surge has always depended significantly on the truce Sadr called last year. Here, yet again, the Coalition/Iraqi National Gov’t has a situation in which to destroy Sadr – just neutralize the basta*d. Yet again, for some truly inscrutable reason, he will probably escape. This is pure idiocy.
