Richard, the real reason manufacturing jobs leave the US is that only unskilled labor is really fungible. Any low- or unskilled labor job will inevitably be replaced either by a machine or by lower cost low-unskilled labor in another country once shipping cost allow.
You might notice the the percentage of the world total manufacturing that occurs in the US is relatively unchanged since 1960 (26-28%) while the amount of manufacturing has increased many-fold. US manufacturing labor has meanwhile decreased by a lot (40%? more?). Why? Automation.
Anyway, that means states with a heavy manufacturing base (especially those with high unionization) are going to lose jobs as it becomes more and more price competitive to replace workers with machines or to move the low- and unskilled jobs overseas. Duh.
Meanwhile, if people move for multiple reasons, but especially jobs, and more and more jobs are high-skill, mobile jobs, where do you expect them to go? To relatively high cost (tax) states or to relatively low cost states?
Meanwhile, New York, some, and California, some, have a large base of resources that have attracted population base in the past, but you could say the same for Michigan about 30 years ago. And Detroit. Now what?
Are you willing to be CA and NY will be better off in 30 years than Detroit and MI are now?
