To: David S., Just passing through and Chuck Pelto,
Go back to my original post @125, click on the links and READ!
RCP is an abbreviation for Real Clear Politics, which was self evident from the provided links. Did you not read?
Discerning a TREND requires at least two data points for comparison because a line is defined by at least two points. The correct mathematical equation is y=mx+b where x is the coordinate on the x axis, y the coordinate on the y axis, b is the numerical value on the y axis when x = 0 and m is the slope of the line. If ‘Obama’s approval rating’ (on the y axis) is plotted as a function of time (on the x axis), and the slope of the line (m) between two points in time is positive, then the TREND is UP. Conversely, if the slope of the line is negative, then the TREND is DOWN. But it all depends on which two points in time one selects for comparison.
For example, if one restricts oneself only to the Gallup tracking poll on Jan 22/24 and Feb 22/24, then the slope of the line was negative and the trend was that Obama’s approval rating was going down. However, if one restricts oneself to the Gallup tracking poll between Feb 22/24 and Mar 22/24, then the slope of the line was positive and the trend was that Obama’s approval rating was going up, which I believe was one of the entirely valid points David S. made in one of his earlier posts.
SELECTING one data point in time from one poll (the recent Zogby poll – a clear outlier) that supports one’s hypothesis (that Obama’s approval ratings were trending down as of Mar 22/24 in comparison to WHAT? – I am not sure which other data point ‘Chuck Pelto’ or ‘Just passing through’ chose to select for comparison), while IGNORING all other data (go back to the links I provided) that refutes one’s hypothesis (Obama’s approval ratings were clearly trending up between Feb 22/24 and Mar 22/24) is not only incorrect it is tantamount to SCIENTIFIC FRAUD! I believe this was another entirely valid point David S. made in an earlier post (although he did not provide a mathematical explanation).
I will say again – the only ‘poll’ that mattered was the election, which Obama won. You boys and/or girls should try to get over it.
