Be very careful with polls. Look at the sample sizes, whether they sample likely voters, registered voters or adults. Also, look at the political breakdowns. Since 2008, the republicans have picked up about 4% on the democrats and independents are growing with voters leaving both political parties. In 2010, none of the polls called the tsunami that swamped the democrats. Elections break late.
Don’t confuse Obama’s personal “popularity” with the overwhelming unpopularity of his policies. Much of his personal approval comes from the Brady effect. If a pollster asks if we like a black man (or if you voted for him) 10% of us will say yes (lie) not to be perceived as a racial bigot.
Even though Rasmussen call Obama at 49/49, Look at the strongly approve vs strongly disapprove numbers. They show 12% gap in favor of disapproval. These are the people who actually vote, contribute and work for the politicians.
Recently, republican candidates have not behaved well, a fact the media is delighted to announce. When a slate is nominated and they roll out the issues, Obama will have big problems.
