The biggest threat to Obama, and by far the least likely threat, is
2) The Nixon-Reagan-Bush coalition could re-assert itself
America and suburbia boomed big for Republicans in 2010. Maybe the Tea Party revolt of 2009-10 is for real.
But what is it about Mitt Romney that will excite the Tea Party? He was Governor of the State of Massachusetts where Boston is located? I can’t see Romney running a Conservative campaign, I can’t see Romney detailing a finite list of goals (another Contract with America), I just can’t see Romney saying or doing anything that will excite the base.
Sure, there’s a lot of ABO around but visceral distaste for Obama really isn’t a motivator unless you have a clear and distinct choice. With Obama there’s not a lot of downside left, he’s a bad as bad can be, and he can’t do any more real harm unless Congress approves his continuing destruction of the country. With Romney there’s not a lot of upside, he’s got no viable plans for positive transformation change.
So for the GOP base Obama is all upside risk and Romney is all downside risk. Why vote for Romney if things are bad when there isn’t any upside?
