I’d give that one about 50 – 100 years before enough experience with AI and simulation allows man to model well enough to determine if moral behaviour is emergent.
-how can AI simulate morality or ethics, the foundation of which is our fear of our fellow man and knowledge of our mortality? How are you going to make an AI machine that fears its own death or inability to reproduce? What do you think human consciouness is? Not sure what you mean by “moral behaviour is emergent”: why do we distinguish morality and ethics? We tend to assume something minimal and universal about the former – a golden rule, say – while the latter is relative to the demands of time and place. But in either case, I don’t see how they could have emerged absent a specifically human consciousness of living and dieing at the hands our fellows.
In other words, while you might be able to program a machine to play a game, like chess, the difference between human intelligence and that is that we place the finite game in a larger consciousness of when, or not, to play the finite game, as we struggle with our larger attachment to an open-ended human history that has, we hope, no end game.
