Florida Preview: Lots of Sunshine, Lots of Suburbs, Lots of Clout
If Romney wins Florida but Newt comes in a close second, it might help Newt in the long run. Newt is better when he’s coming from behind and chasing the leader. As the frontrunner, Romney would resume attacking Obama rather than Gingrich, taking some heat off of Newt and allowing his numbers to creep back up. Newt should hope that he’s always just slightly coming from behind and lands the final blow on Romney towards the end of the contest.
If Newt beats Romney in Florida and takes a commanding lead in the polls again, look out. History suggests that it will go to Newt’s head and he’ll self-destruct yet again. Plus, Romney will devastate him with negative ads as he did in Iowa. Newt can’t and shouldn’t expect to coast for months with a commanding lead over Romney—unless Santorum drops out at some point and his supporters go to Newt. Santorum is the wildcard who can keep Romney in the hunt if Newt’s numbers surge, or hand Newt a victory over Mitt if he decides to drop out.
The above is based on the assumption that Ron Paul won’t be a factor throughout the contest. He’ll hang on to the bitter end, but he probably won’t be able to break up the two-man race that’s taking shape.
All in all, I’m betting that an outbreak of serious civil unrest will coincide with and ultimately overshadow the election, even more so if Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate. Imagine a scenario in which angry Tea Party protestors are at odds with the angry Occupy Wall Street crowd and the angry young Paulbots are added to the mix, while Europe goes bust and war breaks out in the Middle East. Help!
