As good a description of the facts on the ground in Lebanon as I’ve yet tried to untangle.
The really quirky, for I cannot truly describe the upside-down gray pattern, aspect of that present day Lebanese political standoff, is in that members of the March 14th group held, at one time a majority of seats in the cabinet. It has been the assassin’s vote and the failure to fill the vacant seat that has led to stalemate. If the numbers can be believed (last census 1948?), the march 14th party have the clear mandate of the people of Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah and even, if they so chose to settle the Sheba farms on the border of Israel.
Alas, ever murder has weakened further the will of the “Majority” and every new vote reduced the resolve of the cabinet. The Syrian/Hezbollah combination has played the terror/intimidation and political cards masterfully to have regained so much ground and power they had lost when March 14th was at its zenith.
Potential allies are put off, confused and I suppose a bit dazed at the web of alliances. That an alliance opposed to Hezbollah still can muster the strength to oppose further change is IMO something short of a miracle.
To me the road to a free Lebanon is the road to a free Damascus, and is the same road to a free Tehran. It is however a two way road, a thing the current administration appears to lack cognizance.
My fear is the manipulations currently offered by President Obama’s envoys in Damascus and Tehran will lead to the cementing of strongmen and establishment of governments that not only have a demonstrably poor human right record but a demonstrable willingness to manipulate, (i.e. lie steal cheat and murder) in order to achieve their goal so matter the expressed will or perceived desires of the citizens.
It is a parallel that is a bit frightening.
