If only Obama and Reagan were the only two variables here. One can argue that the loss of all the value in the housing market is a tougher nut to crack than Reagan’s overcoming Carter’s malaise. China is another wild card. The undeniable part is that the causative factors in booms and busts build up over time, before they reveal themselves to most of us. For example, if people buy fewer new cars for x years in a row, at some point people will need to buy a lot of new cars, somewhat regardless of their price.
I would posit that the recent American rhythm of booms and busts is that the Dems get us through the hard times, overstay their welcome and get kicked out when the boom is about to come. Their getting kicked out can also help trigger the boom, granted, as the money holders get “confident” and decide to invest. The boom grows, and then goes “poof” as booms do, and the Dems are brought in to tide us over. Sometimes a guy like GWB will have to start the process before a Dem can get in, and sometimes a Pres like Clinton will happen to be around when a dotcom bubble puffs up, but I think that the general cycle is as I have described it. The timing of the underlying economic cycles are harder to read, or more people would be rich. A Repub President may help trigger a boom…so, what the hell, I say ROMNEY!
