wretchard
2007-12-12 17:16:36
The real strength of Bayes is it that it values past informatio in the presence of new information. The value of the old information is not “thrown away” by the advent of the latest data point.
A situation where analysts are working on different sets of data captures this to some extent as a joint probability. But here’s the problem: the Israelis and the British have openly questioned the NIE’s conclusions, presumably on the basis of their own data sets.
It it seems perfectly reasonable to keep measuring and not to regard the current NIE as the once and forever exclulpation of Iran.
