Steve, you are ignoring history.
The writers were given the same story about videotapes – we don’t know how to make money, it’s too uncertain, too costly, etc. – so the writers cut the royalty rate on videotapes, with the understanding that if the business went well, they’d get the old rate. The business boomed and then skyrocketed with DVDs. The studios now want to keep the status quo on DVDs.
The studios claim there is no money in online distribution and it is uncertain, costly, etc. Sound familiar? Yet they tell the investment community that’s the future. And sell ads in the streaming videos they don’t want to pay the writers for.
There is another wrinkle to this you ignore, the other two unions that have “above the line” participation in residuals (actors and directors) have contracts expiring next year. The WGA is the wedge for the others and the producers know it.
