Rumors of the Death of Arctic Sea Ice Greatly Exaggerated
Noah,
“You quote from a 1999 AP article (which you do not provide) and yet the piece at Anthony Watts` website makes it clear that Mcyntire attributes the mistake to a computer glitch in 2000″
Sigh. The glitch occured in 2000. The identification and correction of the error occured in 2007. In 1999 and 2001 GISS stated that it was 1934, not 1998, that was the warmest year in the USA. This contradicts the author’s claim that GISS proclaimed the warmest year 1998, not 1934. Your point is?
“He states quite plainly that NASA data showed 1998 as the warmest on record in the U.S.-completely demolishing your argument.”
Ah, from GISS “proclaiming 1998 the hottest year on record” to “NASA data showed”, which it didn’t;
“The U.S. annual (January-December) mean temperature is slightly warmer in 1934 than in 1998 in the
GISS analysis (Plate 6). This contrasts with the USHCN data, which has 1998 as the warmest year in the century. In both cases the difference between 1934 and 1998 mean temperatures is a few hundredths of a degree. The main reason that 1998 is relatively cooler in the GISS analysis is its larger adjustment for urban warming. In comparing temperatures of years separated by 60 or 70 years the uncertainties in various adjustments (urban warming, station
history adjustments, etc.) lead to an uncertainty of at least 0.1°C. Thus it is not possible to declare a record U.S. temperature with confidence until a result is obtained that exceeds the temperature of 1934 by more than 0.1°C.”
According to Steve McIntyre, immediately prior to the correction GISS analysis showed 1998 0.01C warmer relative to 1934, and immediately after 1998 changed to 0.02C cooler, neither of those differences are statistically significant, neither did NASA GISS proclaim 1998 the warmest year.
“Maybe not, but you are implying that.”
No I’m not. Cite please.
“Isn`t that the accusation you level against Mr. Birdnow here.”
No, the accusation I level is that he implies GISS acted with deliberate dishonesty, and I provide a direct quotation viz.
“proclaiming it the warmest October on record (until they were caught)”
“you haven`t said anything that seriously damages the validity of the argument”
Believe that if you will.
Binned.
