Lebanon lacks a common socio-political vision for the country, as a national entity above clan/religious affiliation. In some respects, the many sects/communities managed despite all odds to live side by side. Mind you, it was not always peacefully or civilized but it worked. The fact that Christians fight among each other only weakens their base. The Sunnis lead by Hariri want to see the International Tribunal bringing down Assad’s regime. HizbAllah and Iran’s ultra radicals may have their beliefs, ideas etc about Mahdi, Shia power etc but at the end of the day they are a minority in the region. If they’ll turn weapons against the other Lebanese, shortly after, HizbAllah is yesterday’s news. My opinion is that HizbAllah will do whatever it can to avoid that.
Aoun’s latest declarations puzzled me more than anything else. His style resembled that of Qassem threatening all who won’t obey. He obviously is ready to do whatever it is necessary to be President. How far is too far in his case? Difficult to say. Those who know some history remember that Aoun wanted to be President from early 90s. Then the Syrians screwed him. They’ll screw him again, no doubt about it. The downside is that the Christian community and actually the whole country will pay for Aoun’s ill deeds.
When/if Lebanese will take the streets to ask something for themselves as a people, not as Sunnis, Shias or Christians and when they’ll tell their leaders that they had enough of their lies, stealing and maneuvering then Lebanon will be rescued. Till then all options are on the table, with or without President.
