ouch. most of my neighbors and coworkers aren’t quite as glum and many have been affected by the evacuations. (on tuesday only one person in 4 actually showed up for work and I work for one of the larger private employers in San Diego County)
Yes, the fire has been devestating
Yes, its taken out more houses this time than the Cedar Creek Fire did in 2003.
However, we have lessons we learned from 2003, and many will be repeated once the fires are put out again.
The issue in San Diego County is that the scrub brush has a natural adaptation that encourages fire. The plant has a root system that can survive the kind of firestorms we see and within 5-15 years the brush will grow back as thick as it was before. it even coats its leaves and bark with an oil that is highly flammable to help increase the intensity of fires.
Why?
To get rid of any competition from other plants. The other plants lacking the adaptation die out. It survives. And in a very dry and hot environment, with canyons that act as wind accelerators to move fire rapidly, such an adaptation has allowed the scrub brush to thrive.
The county sees fires every year. But most do not do much damage. If you look at a map of the county, the buildings mostly cluster around the freeways or the main valley that forms downtown San Diego. And the clusters usually are built up enough that wild fires don’t start there. The fires start in the back country east of the 15, or very rarely between the 5 and the 15 in the northern part of the county. The prevailing winds blow west to east, and in most years any fire is pushed eastward so that it doesn’t threaten the larger inhabited areas. (there are small communities in the east county that do suffer from these fires).
However both 2003 and this years fires started during the time of the Santa Ana winds, which reverse the standard wind flow and bring a very hot, dry and fast breeze from the deserts to the east. Since this wind pushes the fires to the west, the fire ends up hitting inhabited areas and the homes nearest the still undeveloped canyons and hills become vulnerable. (areas where the brush has been cleared usually are untouched and the fire rarely goes deep into the built up areas, its the fringe homes and homes on large uncleared plots that get burned.)
Its a terrible tragedy, and I don’t want to minimize it, but its not a reason to panic or to over-react. Homes can be rebuilt and next time greenbelts and fire breaks can be planned into the communities to protect them from the flames (which most likely won’t return for 15-30 years as the brush has to grow back first.) But, as a county, San Diego will survive as will the people and businesses here.
