Another wonderful article from a long-admired source.
Whilst I agree with most of your analysis, I will make 3 points where I think our thoughts may diverge.
1. History
The region is steeped in a long-standing tradition of welcoming and protecting “guests”. Will it be easy to overturn 1000s of years of culture and align the tribal leaders as in Anbar?
In more recent times, America must take its fair share of the blame for the networks it fostered in Pakistan against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Some say the ISI actually developed off the back of US funding/training.
There is still unfortunately mistrust amongst the urbanised, middle class Pakistanis about America. Further out of the cities, the madrassas have been preaching their message for the last 15 years.
2. ISI
Although you mention it, I am not sure that you give it credit for the immense power it wields in Pakistan today. Responsibility for the latest border war with India (1998-99) can be traced to the ISI, and Benazir thinks that the ISI has sponsored the attacks to further destabilise Pakistan…so they are in control.
The new Chief of the Army is a former head (I think) of ISI. ISI is not just linked to the military – it is a law unto itself, and the power behind the throne on the wider political stage. Musharraff’s military allies cannot execute any “real” activities without ISI’s knowledge and acquiescence.
3. Pakistani politics
The country has been ruled since nationhood by a number of military dictators and a few democratically-elected kleptocrats. Benazir’s return in a country dominated by a military dictatorship echoes her father’s political campaigns in the mid-1960s.
Whoever becomes PM (whenever that may be) will have to make a deal with the ISI. The only option the world has to ensure that they can offer a better deal (one where the ISI has no choice but to put pressure on the fundamentalists) does pick up on the points you made, but I think the problem with Musharraff was his failure to deliver on any promises. Some sort of “performance indicators” need to be built into any political, diplomatic or economic aid given to the new ruler in Pakistan.
Coming from Indian perspective, I know that Pakistan is a highly complicated equation. You have done a good job of trying to break it down for everyone to understand.
Of course, there is always the possibility of a coup.
