Seems that the President does not really want to do something serious about Iran anytime soon which makes him appear less than resolved on Iran. Tehran knows this and they are laughing out loud with each episode of “Hot Again, Cold Again” game Washington wages every now and then on them.
So, the most that could happen now is far from regime change: It is a push by the Brits , Germans, and other European stake holders of the regime to get Rafsi and Khatami back into power somehow. The amount of resistance they will meet by Ahmadinejad and company is not going to hold up for long since the people are sick and tired of Ahamdinejad. The people will most likely take sides with Rafsi and Khatami again to drive Ahamdinejad out. Khamenei’s days are numbered.
So, on a more likely basis than not, we will have the regime continue its nasty life for another 28-years but with Rafsi and Khatami at the helm (or their cohorts), and with strong European support again (good old days of Khatami repeats for Europe which is happy at American inaction towards Iran). Rafsi’s and Khatamites will most likely FREEZE the nuke activities right away, and go back to doing business with Europe again. China and Russia will be shunned in favor of the good, old Europeans who helped put this regime in power in the first place in 1979.
When the President of the USA, appears without resolve, and plays coy with Iranian regime, so it is then that the political “ball” is basically thrown to Europe to do whatever the hell they please with Iran (as they did in 1979). And so the above scenario will be the most likely that may unfold in coming months to diffuse the current crisis for a very long time to come. In absence of American seriousness and resolve to do something solid about the regime, the shape-shifting creature of Islamist regime in Iran will continue to exist in another and will go on playing the west like a violin, like they have done so far.
And No, the regime is not stupid enough to make it a real war between the mullahs, since it knows that will not be to its advantage as a whole. In fact, the only Iranians who really play as a team is the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). The opposition is in disarray and discord, the people inside Iran are numbed or after monetary self-interest or just survival, and most of them are brain-washed by the regime 24-hr. propaganda. This is so bad that chances are if we really want to do something serious in Iran, the people will rally behind the Dictatorship.
So after the change over to Euro-mullahs in power again, everyone in the west will live happily ever after with a smiling face, “reformed” IRI with the likes of Rafsi and Khatami. The regime will still look like a pig, but with fresh lipstick applied on it. And that’s all you gonna get, all because we are too timid and unresolved to act on Iran now. Once again EU will be the winner, and the Iranian people the losers.
