No the race is not over. There are still 10 days to go.
So lets take the opposite end of the bet. McCain wins. How can that happen? First of all we can look at the popular vote. If you place all national polls to a regression trend line [rounded] you get McCain 42%, Obama 52%, a ten point spread with 8% undecided [Any surplus above 50% cannot be counted as undecided. Think for a minute and you'll see why]. Here is the source for the regression trend line:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
Now McCain’s figure is the absolute rock bottom of his possible numbers until the undecided must finally make a choice. He clearly needs a “Hail Mary” pass. This is quite possible. I actually watched the Pittsburgh Steelers’ original of such a pass. So I can testify to it.
So McCain needs all of the 8% undecided. But this only gets him to 50%. To get to 51% he needs to pry 3% of Obama’s voters off his rival. At the moment, this would require a 1%+ per day gain in those national polls.
But we’re assuming that McCain does this. Now lets turn to the electoral vote. McCain is currently sitting on a solid 157 electoral votes. Since 270 is the magic number, he still needs 113. All the current toss-up states–Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida–have 75 electoral votes between them. So McCain wins them all. That gets him to 232.
Now lest you think I have the thumb on the scales, I will use a different source for the EV count than the regression trendline, though both come up with the same EV numbers, and both are the most generous sources I can find that amalgamate all state polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
Now the absolute lowest figure, from these sources, of Obama’s solid and leaning EV states is 306. So John McCain must pry 74 Ev off of Obama’s total to win. These must come from the “leaning Obama” states, he really does not have enough time to take down a solid Obama state. So those 44 votes must come from: New Mexico [5EV], Colorado [9], Ohio [20], Virginia [13], New Hampshire [4].
So McCain pulls in Ohio and Virginia. That gets him up to 265. So he needs five more. Colorado or New Mexco will do it, taking him exactly to 270 or to 274. If he takes all the leaning Obama states, he can push that up to 283, three EV shy of George Bush’s 2004 victory of 286.
So let’s reprise. To win the popular vote, John McCain must acquire the undecideds and 3% of the Obama voters at a rate of 1% per day. to win in the Electoral College he must win the following states: Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia.
Now anyone who truly believes in a McCain victory, and is up for a sporting flutter, can make some real money on Intrade at the moment. By my calculation, $100.00 today on a McCain victory would get them $8650.00.
You’ll kick yourself if you miss the chance.
