dcm – Good references. I scanned through them The consistency I see with the government numbers, is that they start at some basepoint and don’t really seem to change much. That goes to my contention. The things I’ve seen in various articles suggest that all these numbers are based on estimates done last before the drilling ban in ’98. Sorry that I didn’t keep references for you. I was just reading for myself… just general interest for understanding purposes. So, I could be all wet on this.
One article you listed from ’03 had estimated numbers for the foreseeable future with technology development. That one had the most credibility to me. It didn’t mention Arctic sources, just offshore estimates. According to it, mean estimate is about 89.5 bbl. Interestingly, it showed a marked increase from the ’01 numbers in the same article.
You use a figure of 7.68 bbl/yr and rising. Because of the “rising” part, you change the value of deposits regarding how long they’d last. So, 26 bbl in AK only lasts 2-3 yrs. I find that premise false. P&Q shows that price affects demand. We’ve seen that these past few months. American consumption has decreased due to price, so oil has come down in price as demand versus production has improved.
Looking through that stuff doesn’t seem to give the underlying data of whence they obtained the numbers, i.e., surveyed when. The AEO2007 is a case in point. It’s the government prediction of reserves and how long it’d take to develop them. These are the numbers Dems use to discredit drilling.
However, these are the same numbers I’ve seen for years. They seem to have never changed, except to go down based on production. This is what I mean about old numbers. I really don’t think the government went out of its way to get a new base of numbers. That would’ve required new surveys… in the face of drilling bans. It looks wipped together. “Hey, Sam, do a quick spreadsheet for Congress, wouldja?”
The development timeframe is based on government doing nothing to lift the moratoria early. For example, they’ll all expire by 2012, then production can begin no sooner than 2017. What?!? We can’t prepare ahead of time? Uh, no. Oil companies can’t trust Congress not to screw them by extending the moratoria. That’s true now. Some bans have expired, but companies haven’t just rushed out to drill, because they’re waiting on the election results. Also, they may need incentives.
Definitive action by the new Congress can change things drastically. The bans are ridiculous to be maintaining. These are artificial limits. They need premanent lifting.
The oil companies have stated publicly in recent months that they can expand production in short order in the areas where they already have infrastructure. Other places will take longer.
If we combine new production with development of new technologies (clean coal, shale oil, nuclear, renewables), the drilling will act as a fine bridge to get us to the future. Not drilling is unacceptable. The effect of doing all this development, on our economy, and its ability to rein in the power of the foreign oil producers, is simply inestimable.
But, I’m no expert. So, despite my really high IQ, what do I know? Nice yakkin’ atcha.
