Excellent analysis and I like the additional analytical comments being made by everyone. (Except the liberal trolls, who I notice come to disrupt the conversation instead of adding anything meaningful to it. Have you noticed how they like to pick fights?)
I hope that this analysis turns out to be true, because the media is making this race seem very close and like Obama is a shoo in. Are they purposely inflating Obama’s numbers in order to try to get McCain/Palin people to stay home? I wonder. I don’t understand the reason for overestimating Obama’s lead.
Also, I do believe that Obama’s numbers are inflated because of the “race baiting” that he has been doing. In some ways it is backfiring on him because the Obama people make it look like you’re a racist if you don’t vote for him. (Despite that fact that there are lots of other reasons why this man shouldn’t be POTUS.)
Thus, I think Obama’s “race baiting” in this election is working against him in polling. My feeling is that in order to not appear racist, or even possibly subject themselves to this accusation, people just say that they’re undecided. This makes the undecided numbers look much bigger than they really are.
I would love to see a McCain/Palin landslide!
