Having just looked up the Wikepedia link on the Bradley effect, that is NOT the “Bradley effect” I referred to above, which was based on Tom Bradley’s first run in 1969 for Mayor of Los Angeles. That 1969 campaign first revealed what is now called the “Bradley” effect to political professionals in California, and it is their studies of that 1969 campaign which I referred to.
That the term spread nationwide after Bradley lost his first race for governor to George Deukmejian, in 1982, merely shows the myopia of the national press. We were well aware of this in California from 1969 on.
And Bradley lost to Deukmejian in 1982 for reasons other than race. We had a tax revolt going on against Democrats in general, outgoing governor Jerry Brown (“Governor Moonbeam”) was very unpopular, etc. California Democratic professionals expected Deukmejian to win and did not believe the public polls. Our internals showed what was happening.
Tom Bradley was too boring and too low on energy in 1982. He might have won if the voters wanted things to keep going the way they had been under Governor Moonbeam, but that was the last thing they wanted. California voters wanted change in 1982, and Tom Bradley plain did not offer change.
Which again highlights the difference between media perception and reality.
Getting back to the subject though, I agree that there is a such a thing as the “Bradley Effect” as it is commonly referred to, even if I have professional differences with the Wikepedia entry on it, and that it will have some influence in the 2008 presidential election. I don’t think it will have a significant impact due to Democratic nominee Barack Obama’s many other problems.
And, IMO, the “Bradley Effect” applies only to Democratic candidates who must, as Obama has, openly associate with, and not merely tolerate, black racists like Reverend Wright. No black Republican who did that could survive a GOP primary. No black Democrat who does not do that can survive a Democratic primary.
This says far more about the Democratic Party today than the “Bradley Effect” as it presently exists (i.e., not as it existed 20-30 years ago) says about America.
