Correct, I left out the decimal point, and to be fair this is the low side of the estimates, with the higher side being closer to Deborah’s number (around 2.37%)
Regardless, these estimates have questionable significance as there is a vast amount of unexplored territory. With a lifting of the bans we could see our proven reserves increase dramatically, as many in the industry believe. The other factor that renders these estimates nearly meaningless is the suspicion that OPEC states are over-reporting their reserves as this allows them to pump more under their own guidelines.
ProgM said: “correct .. but China and India are growing; the future is not about oil.”
Yes they are growing, though it is doubtful they can continue to grow at the current rate. Regardless, it is irrelevant as oil production has increased at an even higher rate, and this is with US production all but shut down. Open the taps by drilling and the supply will easily outstrip the most bullish estimates on growth.
And you say the “future is not about oil.” What future, 10 years? 30 years? 100 years? With the extent of unknown reserves a wild card no-one can accurately predict this. Add in the full use of Oil Sands and Shale and the “future” is certain to involve oil for the next 100 to 200 years, based upon known reserves alone. Also one must factor in the unknown future development of realistic “alternatives” such as nuclear, solar, wind, tidal, hydrogen and lets not forget our abundant coal. As these develop and come on line, the proven reserves are could last 1,000 years or more. With a sensible energy policy we will have an oil glut for at least the next couple of centuries.
