Fresh from the Los Angeles Times comes a headline that probably wasn’t meant to suggest U.S. intelligence officials are morons, but nonetheless manages to imply exactly that: “U.S. does not believe Iran is trying to build nuclear bomb“.
Really? To be sure, there’s a bit more nuance in the subhead:
The latest U.S. intelligence report indicates Iran is pursuing nuclear research that could enable it to build a nuclear weapon, but that it has not sought to do so.
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If you start reading the article, you will discover that the “latest intelligence report” is not quite up on the latest developments. That “latest” report is the classified National Intelligence Estimate “circulated to policymakers early last year,” reportedly reprising the view in the 2007 NIE on Iran that “Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003.”
If you continue reading the article, you will discover that to believe in this erstwhile halt, you have to ignore Iran’s panoply of uranium enrichment activities and confine your curiosity solely to the question of whether Iran is right now actively manufacturing a nuclear warhead. Which some experts apparently believe it could do by, say, next Valentine’s Day. There are more estimates and arguments presented, along the lines of “for now, U.S, military and intelligence officials say they don’t believe Iran’s leadership has made the decision to build a bomb.”
The director of national intelligence, James Clapper, is quoted as saying:
I think they are keeping themselves in a position to make that decision. … But there are certain things they have not yet done and have not done for some time.
That’s a baffling statement, if you stop to think about it, since things the Iranians have “not yet done” are presumably things they have never done; not things they “have not done for some time.” Whatever. Clapper and his cohorts are reportedly keeping an eye out for whether Iran is doing these things not yet done, or at least not done for some time. (That might be more reassuring, were this not the same James Clapper who testified to congress that the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is “largely secular” and has “eschewed violence.”)
But why cavil? Let us assume that this article provides an accurate picture of what our intelligence community really believes, and that what they believe is true: Iran’s rulers are not trying to build a nuclear bomb.
In that case, however, you pretty much have to assume that Iran’s rulers are just plain nuts.
You have to give it to US intelligence, they are consistent in their competence.
I wonder if the CIA thinks the Soviet Union will fall?
The Iranians could blow up an atom bomb as a test and the Obama administration would not only deny that they had more than one bomb, but that the Iranians would use their next bomb on anybody. The Obama administration would say that Pakistan is a nuclear power, so why not let Iran be a nuclear power? “What’s all the fuss about,” they would say. I guess it would take the incineration of Tel Aviv or the loss of an American city to prove that Iran having a nuclear bomb is a bad thing. But by then it will be too late. Perhaps we should call Obama the “Too Late” president, because he always seems to do everything after the fact, or too late. And if that’s true, it will be too late for us as well.
If it Tel Aviv happens to be nuked prior to 11/06/2012 we should expect the 0 response to be on the order of, “Oh well, they asked for it didn’t they.”
I believe you are mistaken. Obama would delcare war, send in a SEAL team and hope it will take until after the election for them to beat the Iranians!
Funny Obama doesn’t look like Tojo. After the first atom bomb was dropped on Japan the Japanese High Command assured the emperor the US had only one.
I hope you sent a copy to Mr. Clapper and cc’d GEN Dempsey.
As to why Clapper is saying these things, Occam’s Razor seems to suggest that he who hired him wants to hear them.
The next option would be much more complex, that Clapper’s really running a deception campaign against the mullahs, feeding them rope so they’ll hang themselves. Meanwhile, his boss is building up our strategic strike capability, preparing for the day when … yeah, right, makes me laugh too.
you give our governent way too much credit as to be intelligent. they’re all civil servants and there isn’t anything more unintelligent than a civil servant..not even a slug.. that’s a given..
Stupid questions. Then why is the Obama administration bothering to build limited ABM sites in Turkey, Poland, etc., dedicated to stopping the Iranian scud missile in mid flight, if their nuke program was just for the electricity and not warheads? Intelligence community? Aren’t these the same intelligent people who could never figure out who Woodward and Bernstein’s snitch, Deep Throat, was? Are these not the same intelligent people who concluded that Major Hasan was going postal at Fort Hood while screaming god is great over the prospect of no more Happy Meals in Afghanistan?
This is all so similar to Winston Churchill’s insistence in the 1930s that Germany’s buildup in military men and equipment JUST MIGHT tell us their intentions. He could cite statistics on aircraft production, portion of GDP spent on military, men in uniform, shipbuilding, etc to show that Germany was building for war and that the UK and France could not catchup.
But let’s get real – what the CIA tells the LA Times and what they tell other Administration insiders are probably two completely different stories.
Not that this is a very comforting insight.
The Administration is acting like it’s getting the same song from the CIA as the rest of us. I suggest poster #4, pre-Boomer Marine brat, is on to something!
The West has nothing to fear from Iran.
But we do have much to fear from Israel. The Zionists have admitted they will blackmail Europe into submission if Israel is ever attacked again:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
“We [Israel] possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force. Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: ‘Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.’ I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the second or third. We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under.
There are so many things I want to say to you that would not allow my comment to be posted, I’ll just say,
Yeah, sure, Sparky.
that was very restrained! I salute you. and I think I can safely say I echo your unwritten thoughts
me, I read about 3 words into ES’ screed and just laughed. I don’t know why the Jew-haters bother to come on sites like this–probably just to see if they can get a rise out of us normal rational people.
ES, don’t you have to go riot in sympathy with the lunatic Afghanis now?
It’s amazing how less than 6 MILLION Israeli Jews managed to get the other 7 BILLION people on this planet by the short hairs. You’ve got to admire that kind of initiative.
Dude, you used a wikipedia link for a reference in a serious discussion! That’s like passing gas at the dinner table.
Allow me to point out that you’re quoting a professor of an academic institution, not Israeli policy. Contrast that with the formal rantings in Farsi voiced by none other than Ahmadinejad himself.
That Israel probably does have an undeclared nuclear arsenal, there is little doubt. However, the size has never been formally stated, and it is never a part of Israeli foreign policy. Furthermore, Israel is not a signatory and never did sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Contrast that with Iran, Pakistan, India, North Korea, Iraq, and Syria –all signatories who either have nuclear weapons or who sought them.
You think Israel should roll over and die just because some thuggish neighbors decide to deny history? No. Not. Going. To. Happen.
Like any nuclear power, they will fight conventionally until there their backs are against the wall. If that ever happens, they will unleash their final option. It will devastate this planet. Nobody wants to see it happen.
There is almost guaranteed to be an alliance of some sort that will destroy those who use nuclear weapons first. Israel knows that there is likely to be a retaliation.
My only hope is that if this option ever happens, that the targets include reducing Mecca and Medina to a radioactive molten lake of glass. The religions and political thought that creates a destructive, ignorant, and hierarchical societies such as what most Islamic cultures look like today deserves to die with those they attack.
Allow me to point out that you’re quoting a professor of an academic institution, not Israeli policy.
No, it was a quote from former Israeli Chief of Staff General Moshe Dayan, threatening to rain nuclear bombs on an innocent 3rd party if Israel is attacked.
That’s called blackmail, and the nature of his threat is extremely evil. For the sake of the civilized West, let’s hope Israel has changed their policy since then. But I doubt they have.
PS: Iran has never made such threats towards the West.
You quoted someone who quoted someone else. Neither you nor I are in any position to evaluate the veracity of that secondary quote. It is not confirmed anywhere else as far as I know.
Oh, and as for your PS: How many times has some government official led the chant “Death to America”? Do you really think we shouldn’t take that seriously?
Remember when McCain chanted “Bomb bomb bomb Iran!” at a campaign rally?
Ahhh. Another Reverand Wright congregant!
Quote of a qoute taken from Wikipedia where anyone can put whatever they want in. Moshe Dayan died in 1981. Care to state what year and in what context he made such said statement? You can’t. You cut and paste out of context and timeline. Imagine if you were getting bombed with more than 2000 missiles a year.
Yet you ahve nothing to add about the article itself. The facts are irrefutable. They stated they wanted electrical power. They were offered graphite rods for said purpose, graphite rods that were impregnated with contaminates that would prevent their use for nuclear weapons. They turned it down. They said they wanted medical nuclear technology (never mind the 4 hospitals they have are a disgrace to mankind and incapable of any medical tech). Russia offered medical grade pellets. They turned it down. They said they needed 4 centrifuges (which they didn’t) Now they have several arrays of centrifuges which only serves to create highly enriched uranium products with only one prupose. It is nothing but lies and a charade.
Your argument is something somebody said that somebody else said FORTY YEARS AGO and has no bearing on the subject. Go away.
Next this admin and Intel community will tell us that the Iranians are manufacturing an upgraded chevy volt and thats why they need all this “power” capacity. Clapper should retire and do stand up comedy.
Why retire when he can work in intelligence and do stand up at the same time?
“for now, U.S, military and intelligence officials say they don’t believe Iran’s leadership has made the decision to build a bomb.”
Right, they’ve embarked on a program that’s hideously expensive because they want to do research using out-dated technology supplied by the Russians? Don’t they have access to Google? Do they think their nuclear scientists, who have zero expertise, are somehow better than the Russians?
Call me crazy but I’m starting to think that the Russians are pulling off a big scam. You know they’re not happy over Afghanistan and Chechnya so who’s to say that they’re not just bleeding the mullahs dry? Who’s to say that the technology will ever actually work? I could see the Soviets giving the mullahs the bomb because the Soviets would have still controlled access but I can’t really see the Russians helping Iran unless it’s hoax. On the other hand, it may be the first step in a ploy to vaporize the ME and make the Russian oil more valuable. At any rate, it’s difficult to believe that the Russians actually intend to help Iran with their help
While it is foolish to underestimate the abilities of someone you are competing with, it is more foolish to overestimate the abilities of that someone when you may need to depend on them.
Russia has been pushing the line that it has all kinds of info and secret intelligence that Iran is doing a double bluff, being coy, thus giving the impression that it is after bomb, but really isn’t. Only a fool would believe Russia on something like this.
Here are the recent thoughts of the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey on the subject of Iran and its nuclear program:
“We also know or believe we know that the Iranian regime has not decided that they will embark on the effort to weaponize their nuclear capability.…And
we are of the opinion that the Iranian regime is a rational actor.”
That first assertion could be made only by someone with a very weak connection to reality. To doubt Iran’s serious commitment to “weaponizing thdeir nuclear capacity”, one must ignore:
•Iran’s ten-year history of covert nuclear development;
•Iran’s outright rejection of numerous UN mandates to open its nuclear program to inspection;
•Iran’s insistence on moving its nuclear facilities to underground bunkers;
•Iran’s continuing official threats to destroy America and wipe Israel “off the map”;
•Subtle hints like this headline from Iran’s official news agency: “The wife of an assassinated Iranian nuclear scientist reiterated on Tuesday that her husband sought the annihilation of the Zionist regime wholeheartedly”;
•And, finally, Iran’s acceptance of the cost of a decade of slowly escalating sanctions, which might have been easily avoided by allowing inspections.
But forget all that. Let’s look at the other assertion: the Iranian regime is a “rational actor”. In other words, they are not crazy. They can be relied upon to do the rational thing, and therefore they will be deterred by the threat of retaliation from Israel or the US if they initiate a nuclear attack on Israel (or us).
This assertion may be true or it may be false. Consider those two possibilities.
If the regime is rational, it will presumably weigh the benefits and risks before initiating an attack. And what will they conclude? Will they quake in fear at the prospect that President Obama would retaliate against Iran, given that Russia and/or China would almost certainly threaten counter-retaliation? Or will they conclude that any US response would be limited to condemnation, sanctions, and aid to any Israeli survivors. If you can imagine Obama pressing the button for military action to punish Israel’s murderers after the fact, then you need to look in the mirror and ask what kind of actor you are.
But what about Israeli retaliation? Wouldn’t that threat be sufficient to deter a nuclear Iran?
Maybe yes, maybe no. Unlike the US and USSR, Israel is so small (about the size of New Jersey) that targeting all its military sites in a “first strike” is by no means unthinkable. And if a few nukes escape and get through to Iran, the devastation of a few centers might be survivable.
As we know from the Cold War, “thinking about the unthinkable” is a strategic necessity for all nuclear states. We did it, the Soviets did it, and you can bet the Iranians are doing it, too. But they are processing the thought through a 7th century brain and the disturbing question: “What Would the 12th Imam Do?”
Yet General Dempsey says that Iran is a rational actor,
And General Dempsey is an honorable man.
But let us look just a bit further into this presumed division of leaders and regimes into rational and (presumably) irrational. It is now generally agreed upon that throughout the 1930’s, even up to 1938 in Munich, Hitler could have been forced to back down if presented with a credible military threat. (Unfortunately, neither Britain nor France nor the US were inclined to offer such a threat.)
Hitler’s actions were cool and calculated, based in large part on an accurate assessment of his enemies’ pacifism. Hitler was nothing if not a rational actor. He made mistakes (attacking the USSR before beating Britain), but they were miscalculations, not irrationality.
On the other hand, throughout the last year of the war, with the Soviets and Americans pushing steadily ahead, Hitler hamstrung his own military supply system by using enormous transport resources to move Europe’s remaining Jews to the death camps. Was that the act of a “rational actor”? Not if the main goal is to win a war.
But what if your real goal is to kill Jews? And you could do it in a single day? How would a “rational actor” calculate risks and benefits in that situation?
It might be a different calculation than that made by General Dempsey and his boss.
Nice post.
Calling Iran a rational actor is just trying to tell America that Iran shares our value system, that they would come to the same, sane conclusions we would.
This is an obvious lie. They do not see things the way we do.
Dempsey has violated his oath to faithfully serve.
We cannot afford this politicization of our intelligence gathering. Pseudo-science is bad enough, but pseudo-intelligence is short-term deadly to us.
Congress needs to haul his butt up before a committee for questioning. If I were President, and he had handed me this swill, I’d have had him court-martialed for dereliction and/or other things.
Maybe a psych eval, because this was not rational. Well, it is rational in an irrational, political environment. Different way of looking at things. Different value system. Yep, completely rational, which leads to an insane conclusion.
Yes, the Iranians are rational actors… within their insane value system. But not according to ours, which is what is implied in this report, which is why it is a lie. It purposely points you to a false, dangerous conclusion. Dempsey has to know that, from our perspective, there is nothing rational about Iran’s behavior. From our point of view, their value system is insane.
I just had kind of a funny thought. What if Iran developed a nuclear weapon and conducted an underground test and it inadvertently polluted their petroleum deposits with radioactivity? They would essentially have shot themselves in the foot with their own nuclear weapon.
The US position on the Iranian nuclear program must draw bright clear lines; the current miasma is dangerous. We are playing with nuclear war, a game in which every one loses.
In America, civilian nukes are limited to enrichment well below the 20% enriched level to provide a generous margin between peaceful and military usage. 20% enrichment is a milestone, about 90% on the path toward bomb grade fuel.
It has been stated, and repeated here, that any nation has the sovereign right to use peaceful nuclear energy. It is Iran’s right to divest itself from total reliance on hydrocarbon energy. Iran has the right to extract their native nuclear prime fuels, and enrich it for power reactors. They contend that the West really wants them subservient, by denying them advanced technologies. Our conduct, not our words, should disprove this position.
The clear line, the defined departure from peaceful uses to preparation for nuclear war, must be shouted to the world. It is the denial of full disclosure, and the denial of international inspectors to all nuclear facilities and personnel, at unscheduled times. Trust does not work, Iran has repeatedly lied, on this subject, to the world community. Their conduct disproves the rational actor position. They knowingly descend into nuclear hell, where lies, murder and insanity are normal.
It is the curse of nuclear weapons that leaders must ponder, “what do they have, and will they use it?” This question drove George Bush to war, and Barack Obama excoriated him on his decision. From Iran, Pakistan, India, China, and North Korea, warriors secretly work these questions. This is the problem: nuclear weapons injure sovereign power, state secrets must be opened to bitter enemies. The only “rational” alternative, for small nations, maybe first strike, “use them or lose them.”
The question, to be defined by US candidates for power, is, “what follows?” The above nations, Israel, Russia, the entire UN, and our people deserve an answer, before time runs out, for millions of people.
Excellent response. The only thing I would add to this is that the response generally be in line with all other nuclear or potentially nuclear nations such as North Korea.
The US ” intelligence community ” is really doing its best to lipstick and paint a ” rosy ” face to Iran, Even the most ” progressist peace camp ” activist were not so heavily lying about he ” peace-loving USSR “. It is a terrible shame to read that the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate which has been grotesquely turned into ridicule by Iran’ last years race towards nuclear bomb , is getting a new life thanks to the Los Angeles Time . THe US intelligence community has lost all credibility and the more so since it bows its back to any kind of political contorted lie the Obama camp tries to spread.
Anyway it is way too late, now the military option is the only one left to Israel to ensure its survival, and the blame game , if there is anyone to play it must be directed at the last three USA presidents ( Clinton Bush Obama ) who have refused to act when they had time and who have abandoned Israel .
Of course, you sanction a nation that Does Not have a nuclear program, makes all the sense in the world. And you say the Iranians are nuts? This is the Obama blind eye, the one that never sees a threat from islam. Why not, that’s where his heart is.
I think you guys are missing the point and assigning too much blame to the CIA. I think the important point is that this was a 2007 report about what was happening in 2003. Whatever the Iranian proclivities may have been a decade ago in this regard bear little significance to the current circumstances. My concern is that the misleading LA Times headline suggests that the report is new and they bury the fact that it is just newly declassified, but older information. They are clearly being purposely deceptive.
In 2003 Iran probably had good reason to pause their nuclear weapons research since the U.S. was initiating a war to depose their primary military opponent. If I were them I would have done the same thing. But today the calculus is different, and they have every reason in the world to build a nuke before the next president is sworn into office and has had time to react (so,that would be Q4 2013 or so).
I was reflecting on this and it occurred to me….how many IRA car bombs exploded prematurely en route or during assembly? How many IEDs exploded prematurely while being assembled or emplaced?
Quite a few actually….
I for one would not be terribly surprised if Iran’s first nuclear explosion obliterated their nuclear facilities and technicions with an accidental or premature boom…..
Since no such accident has ever occurred….maybe the Soviets had a whoops but we will never know…
Oh well a fella can fantasize……
Interesting thought…
Maybe we should create some plausably deniable low-grade nuke strike plan, and blame them for it?
Hey, youre messing with Nukes Mohammad….be careful what you wish for!
Obambi’s actions on the World stage, including his apologies to the Mohammedan scum who think killing people is OK but the burning of ALREADY SELF DESECRATED books is a far worse act, just makes Winston Churchill’s statement that
‘An appeaser is one who feeds the crocodile hoping it will eat him last”
seem all too apposite.
Just as Hitler laid out his intentions for all to see in ‘Meine Kampf’ so the constant Iranian threats to ‘wipe Israel off the map’ and to ‘kill all Jews’ have laid bare exactly what their intentions are. Add to that their Shia Islam beliefs that Armageddon will see the destruction of the Jews and the rise of SHIA Islam to world domination and it is obvious that they mean what they say.
A lot written and said about the Middle East has always been fantastic; but the sheer title of your column forced me to fall off the chair and respond something,
anything—like Arte Johnson would most likely have done through the reeds. “Very interesting; but not on the agenda for this year my dumpling.”